The risk of fractures after entering long-term care facilities.

BACKGROUND: Stratifying residents at increased risk for fractures in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) can potentially improve awareness and facilitate the delivery of targeted interventions to reduce risk. Although several fracture risk assessment tools exist, most are not suitable for individuals entering LTCF. Moreover, existing tools do not examine risk profiles of individuals at key periods in their aged care journey, specifically at entry into LTCFs. PURPOSE: Our objectives were to identify fracture predictors, develop a fracture risk prognostic model for new LTCF residents and compare its performance to the Fracture Risk Assessment in Long term care (FRAiL) model using the Registry of Senior Australians (ROSA) Historical National Cohort, which contains integrated health and aged care information for individuals receiving long term care services. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥65 years old who entered 2079 facilities in three Australian states between 01/01/2009 and 31/12/2016 were examined. Fractures (any) within 365 days of LTCF entry were the outcome of interest. Individual, medication, health care, facility and system-related factors were examined as predictors. A fracture prognostic model was developed using elastic nets penalised regression and Fine-Gray models. Model discrimination was examined using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) from the 20 % testing dataset. Model performance was compared to an existing risk model (i.e., FRAiL model). RESULTS: Of the 238,782 individuals studied, 62.3 % (N = 148,838) were women, 49.7 % (N = 118,598) had dementia and the median age was 84 (interquartile range 79-89). Within 365 days of LTCF entry, 7.2 % (N = 17,110) of individuals experienced a fracture. The strongest fracture predictors included: complex health care rating (no vs high care needs, sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) = 1.52, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.39-1.67), nutrition rating (moderate vs worst, sHR = 1.48, 95%CI 1.38-1.59), prior fractures (sHR ranging from 1.24 to 1.41 depending on fracture site/type), one year history of general practitioner attendances (≥16 attendances vs none, sHR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.18-1.54), use of dopa and dopa derivative antiparkinsonian medications (sHR = 1.28, 95%CI 1.19-1.38), history of osteoporosis (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.16-1.27), dementia (sHR = 1.22, 95%CI 1.17-1.28) and falls (sHR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.17-1.25). The model AUC in the testing cohort was 0.62 (95%CI 0.61-0.63) and performed similar to the FRAiL model (AUC = 0.61, 95%CI 0.60-0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Critical information captured during transition into LTCF can be effectively leveraged to inform fracture risk profiling. New fracture predictors including complex health care needs, recent emergency department encounters, general practitioner and consultant physician attendances, were identified.

A Risk Prediction Model for Physical Restraints Among Older Chinese Adults in Long-term Care Facilities: Machine Learning Study.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have identified risk factors for physical restraint (PR) use in older adults in long-term care facilities. Nevertheless, there is a lack of predictive tools to identify high-risk individuals. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop machine learning (ML)-based models to predict the risk of PR in older adults. METHODS: This study conducted a cross-sectional secondary data analysis based on 1026 older adults from 6 long-term care facilities in Chongqing, China, from July 2019 to November 2019. The primary outcome was the use of PR (yes or no), identified by 2 collectors' direct observation. A total of 15 candidate predictors (older adults' demographic and clinical factors) that could be commonly and easily collected from clinical practice were used to build 9 independent ML models: Gaussian Naïve Bayesian (GNB), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (Lightgbm), as well as stacking ensemble ML. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, an F score, a comprehensive evaluation indicator (CEI) weighed by the above indicators, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A net benefit approach using the decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical utility of the best model. Models were tested via 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). RESULTS: A total of 1026 older adults (mean 83.5, SD 7.6 years; n=586, 57.1% male older adults) and 265 restrained older adults were included in the study. All ML models performed well, with an AUC above 0.905 and an F score above 0.900. The 2 best independent models are RF (AUC 0.938, 95% CI 0.914-0.947) and SVM (AUC 0.949, 95% CI 0.911-0.953). The DCA demonstrated that the RF model displayed better clinical utility than other models. The stacking model combined with SVM, RF, and MLP performed best with AUC (0.950) and CEI (0.943) values, as well as the DCA curve indicated the best clinical utility. The SHAP plots demonstrated that the significant contributors to model performance were related to cognitive impairment, care dependency, mobility decline, physical agitation, and an indwelling tube. CONCLUSIONS: The RF and stacking models had high performance and clinical utility. ML prediction models for predicting the probability of PR in older adults could offer clinical screening and decision support, which could help medical staff in the early identification and PR management of older adults.

Cognitive Decline in Long-term Care Residents Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ontario, Canada.

This study examines the incidence of cognitive decline among long-term care residents in Ontario before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Association Between Changes in Postoperative Opioid Utilization and Long-Term Health Care Spending Among Surgical Patients With Chronic Opioid Utilization.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest in identifying and developing interventions aimed at reducing the risk of increased, long-term opioid use among surgical patients. While understanding how these interventions impact health care spending has important policy implications and may facilitate the widespread adoption of these interventions, the extent to which they may impact health care spending among surgical patients who utilize opioids chronically is unknown. METHODS: This study was a retrospective analysis of administrative health care claims data for privately insured patients. We identified 53,847 patients undergoing 1 of 10 procedures between January 1, 2004, and September 30, 2018 (total knee arthroplasty, total hip arthroplasty, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, open cholecystectomy, laparoscopic appendectomy, open appendectomy, cesarean delivery, functional endoscopic sinus surgery, transurethral resection of the prostate, or simple mastectomy) who had chronic opioid utilization (≥10 prescriptions or ≥120-day supply in the year before surgery). Patients were classified into 3 groups based on differences in opioid utilization, measured in average daily oral morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs), between the first postoperative year and the year before surgery: "stable" (<20% change), "increasing" (≥20% increase), or "decreasing" (≥20% decrease). We then examined the association between these 3 groups and health care spending during the first postoperative year, using a multivariable regression to adjust for observable confounders, such as patient demographics, medical comorbidities, and preoperative health care utilization. RESULTS: The average age of the sample was 62.0 (standard deviation [SD] 13.1) years, and there were 35,715 (66.3%) women. Based on the change in average daily MME between the first postoperative year and the year before surgery, 16,961 (31.5%) patients were classified as "stable," 15,463 (28.7%) were classified as "increasing," and 21,423 (39.8%) patients were classified as "decreasing." After adjusting for potential confounders, "increasing" patients had higher health care spending ($37,437) than "stable" patients ($31,061), a difference that was statistically significant ($6377; 95% confidence interval [CI], $5669-$7084; P < .001), while "decreasing" patients had lower health care spending ($29,990), a difference (-$1070) that was also statistically significant (95% CI, -$1679 to -$462; P = .001). These results were generally consistent across an array of subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with chronic opioid utilization before surgery, subsequent increases in opioid utilization during the first postoperative year were associated with increased health care spending during that timeframe, while subsequent decreases in opioid utilization were associated with decreased health care spending.

Association of material deprivation with discharge location and length of stay after inpatient stroke rehabilitation in Ontario: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low socioeconomic status is associated with increased risk of stroke and worse poststroke functional status. The aim of this study was to determine whether socioeconomic status, as measured by material deprivation, is associated with direct discharge to long-term care or length of stay after inpatient stroke rehabilitation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, population-based cohort study of people admitted to inpatient rehabilitation in Ontario, Canada, after stroke. Community-dwelling adults (aged 19-100 yr) discharged from acute care with a most responsible diagnosis of stroke between Sept. 1, 2012, and Aug. 31, 2017, and subsequently admitted to an inpatient rehabilitation bed were included. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to examine the association between material deprivation quintile (from the Ontario Marginalization Index) and discharge to long-term care, and a multivariable negative binomial regression model to examine the association between material deprivation quintile and rehabilitation length of stay. RESULTS: A total of 18 736 people were included. There was no association between material deprivation and direct discharge to long-term care (most v. least deprived: odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-1.28); however, people living in the most deprived areas had a mean length of stay 1.7 days longer than that of people in the least deprived areas (p = 0.004). This difference was not significant after adjustment for other baseline differences (relative change in mean 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). INTERPRETATION: People admitted to inpatient stroke rehabilitation in Ontario had similar discharge destinations and lengths of stay regardless of their socioeconomic status. In future studies, investigators should consider further examining the associations of material deprivation with upstream factors as well as potential mitigation strategies.

Association of Proximity to a Long-Term Acute Care Hospital With Hospital Tracheostomy Practices.

OBJECTIVES: Availability of long-term acute care hospitals has been associated with hospital discharge practices. It is unclear if long-term acute care hospital availability can influence patient care decisions. We sought to determine the association of long-term acute care hospital availability at different hospitals with the likelihood of tracheostomy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: California Patient Discharge Database, 2016-2018. PATIENTS: Adult patients receiving mechanical ventilation for respiratory failure. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Using the California Patient Discharge Database 2016-2018, we identified all mechanically ventilated patients and those who received tracheostomy. We determine the association between tracheostomy and the distance between each hospital and the nearest long-term acute care hospital and the number of long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles of each hospital. Among 281,502 hospitalizations where a patient received mechanical ventilation, 22,899 (8.1%) received a tracheostomy. Patients admitted to a hospital closer to a long-term acute care hospital compared with those furthest from a long-term acute care hospital had 38.9% (95% CI, 33.3-44.6%) higher odds of tracheostomy (closest hospitals 8.7% vs furthest hospitals 6.3%, adjusted odds ratio = 1.65; 95% CI, 1.40-1.95). Patients had a 32.4% (95% CI, 27.6-37.3%) higher risk of tracheostomy when admitted to a hospital with more long-term acute care hospital beds in the immediate vicinity (most long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles 8.9% vs fewest long-term acute care hospital beds 6.7%, adjusted odds ratio = 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80). Distance to the nearest long-term acute care hospital was inversely correlated with hospital risk-adjusted tracheostomy rates (ρ = -0.25; p < 0.0001). The number of long-term acute care hospital beds within 20 miles was positively correlated with hospital risk-adjusted tracheostomy rates (ρ = 0.22; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Proximity and availability of long-term acute care hospital beds were associated with patient odds of tracheostomy and hospital tracheostomy practices. These findings suggest a hospital effect on tracheostomy decision-making over and above patient case-mix. Future studies focusing on shared decision-making for tracheostomy are needed to ensure goal-concordant care for prolonged mechanical ventilation.

Physical and psychological health at adolescence and home care use later in life.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relation between physical and psychological health indicators at adolescence (age 18) and household, personal, and nursing home care use later in life at ages 57-69 years. METHODS: Using medical examinations on men born in 1944-1947 who were evaluated for military service at age 18 in the Netherlands, we link physical and psychological health assessments to national administrative microdata on the use of home care services at ages 57-69 years. We postulate a panel probit model for home care use over these years. In the analyses, we account for selective survival through correlated panel probit models. RESULTS: Poor mental health and being overweight at age 18 are important predictors of later life home care use. Home care use at ages 57-69 years is also highly related to and interacts with father's socioeconomic status and recruits' education at age 18. DISCUSSION: Specific health characteristics identified at age 18 are highly related to the later utilization of home-care at age 57-69 years. Some characteristics may be amenable to early life health interventions to decrease the future costs of long-term home care.

Prolonged carriage of ESBL-producing enterobacterales and potential cross-transmission among residents in geriatric long-term care facilities.

Previous studies indicated residents in geriatric long-term care facilities (LTCFs) had much higher prevalence of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) carriage than the general population. Most ESBL-E carriers are asymptomatic. The study tested the hypothesis that residents with ESBL-E carriage may accumulate inside geriatric LTCFs through potential cross-transmission after exposure to residents with prolonged ESBL-E carriage. 260 residents from four Japanese LTCFs underwent ESBL-E testing of fecal specimens and were divided into two cohorts: Cohort 1,75 patients with ≥ 2 months residence at study onset; Cohort 2, 185 patients with < 2 months residence at study onset or new admission during the study period. Three analyses were performed: (1) ESBL-E carriage statuses in Cohort 1 and Cohort 2; (2) changes in ESBL-E carriage statuses 3-12 months after the first testing and ≥ 12 months after the second testing; and (3) lengths of positive ESBL-E carriage statuses. Compared with the residents in Cohort 1, a significantly larger proportion of residents in Cohort 2 were positive for ESBL-E carriage (28.0% in Cohort 1 vs 40.0% in Cohort 2). In the subsequent testing results, 18.3% of residents who were negative in the first testing showed positive conversion to ESBL-E carriage in the second testing, while no patients who were negative in the second testing showed positive conversion in the third testing. The maximum length of ESBL-E carriage was 17 months. The findings indicated that some residents acquired ESBL-E through potential cross-transmission inside the LTCFs after short-term residence. However, no residents showed positive conversion after long-term residence, which indicates that residents with ESBL-E carriage may not accumulate inside LTCFs. Practical infection control and prevention measures could improve the ESBL-E prevalence in geriatric LTCFs.

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Health Care Use in Older Adults : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid have particularly high food insecurity prevalence and health care use. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which reduces food insecurity, is associated with lower health care use and cost for older adults dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. DESIGN: An incident user retrospective cohort study design was used. The association between participation in SNAP and health care use and cost using outcome regression was assessed and supplemented by entropy balancing, matching, and instrumental variable analyses. SETTING: North Carolina, September 2016 through July 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (aged ≥65 years) dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid but not initially enrolled in SNAP. MEASUREMENTS: Inpatient admissions (primary outcome), emergency department visits, long-term care admissions, and Medicaid expenditures. RESULTS: Of 115 868 persons included, 5093 (4.4%) enrolled in SNAP. Mean follow-up was approximately 22 months. In outcome regression analyses, SNAP enrollment was associated with fewer inpatient hospitalizations (-24.6 [95% CI, -40.6 to -8.7]), emergency department visits (-192.7 [CI, -231.1 to -154.4]), and long-term care admissions (-65.2 [CI, -77.5 to -52.9]) per 1000 person-years as well as fewer dollars in Medicaid payments per person per year (-$2360 [CI, -$2649 to -$2071]). Results were similar in entropy balancing, matching, and instrumental variable analyses. LIMITATION: Single state, no Medicare claims data available, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSION: Participation in SNAP was associated with fewer inpatient admissions and lower health care costs for older adults dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

The Association of Race, Ethnicity, and Wages Among Registered Nurses in Long-term Care.

OBJECTIVE: This study seeks to measure wage differences between registered nurses (RNs) working in long-term care (LTC) (eg, nursing homes, home health) and non-LTC settings (eg, hospitals, ambulatory care) and whether differences are associated with the characteristics of the RN workforce between and within settings. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional design. This study used the 2018 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses (NSSRN) public-use file to examine RN employment and earnings. METHODS: Our study population included a sample of 15,373 RNs who were employed at least 1000 hours in nursing in the past year and active in patient care. Characteristics such as race/ethnicity, type of RN degree completed, census region, and union status were included. Multiple regression analyses examined the effect of these characteristics on wages. Logistic regression was used to predict RN employment in LTC settings. RESULTS: RNs in LTC experienced lower wages compared with those in non-LTC settings, yet this difference was not associated with racial/ethnic or international educational differences. Among RNs working in LTC, lower wages were associated with part-time work, less experience, lack of union representation, and regional wage differences. CONCLUSION: Because RNs in LTC earn lower wages than RNs in other settings, policies to minimize pay inequities are needed to support the RN workforce caring for frail older adults.

Predictors of mortality among long-term care residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: While individuals living in long-term care (LTC) homes have experienced adverse outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, few studies have examined a broad range of predictors of 30-day mortality in this population. METHODS: We studied residents living in LTC homes in Ontario, Canada, who underwent PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection from January 1 to August 31, 2020, and examined predictors of all-cause death within 30 days after a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. We examined a broad range of risk factor categories including demographics, comorbidities, functional status, laboratory tests, and characteristics of the LTC facility and surrounding community were examined. In total, 304 potential predictors were evaluated for their association with mortality using machine learning (Random Forest). RESULTS: A total of 64,733 residents of LTC, median age 86 (78, 91) years (31.8% men), underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing, of whom 5029 (7.8%) tested positive. Thirty-day mortality rates were 28.7% (1442 deaths) after a positive test. Of 59,702 residents who tested negative, 2652 (4.4%) died within 30 days of testing. Predictors of mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection included age, functional status (e.g., activity of daily living score and pressure ulcer risk), male sex, undernutrition, dehydration risk, prior hospital contacts for respiratory illness, and duration of comorbidities (e.g., heart failure, COPD). Lower GFR, hemoglobin concentration, lymphocyte count, and serum albumin were associated with higher mortality. After combining all covariates to generate a risk index, mortality rate in the highest risk quartile was 48.3% compared with 7% in the first quartile (odds ratio 12.42, 95%CI: 6.67, 22.80, p < 0.001). Deaths continued to increase rapidly for 15 days after the positive test. CONCLUSIONS: LTC residents, particularly those with reduced functional status, comorbidities, and abnormalities on routine laboratory tests, are at high risk for mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recognizing high-risk residents in LTC may enhance institution of appropriate preventative measures.

Wound Care Consultation in Postacute/Long-term Care: Characteristics and Practice Implications.

OBJECTIVE: To study the characteristics of residents in postacute (PA)/long-term care (LTC) facilities with wounds and prevalence of wound types other than pressure injuries (PIs). METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective review of all wound care consultations over 1 year at The New Jewish Home, a 514-bed academically affiliated facility in an urban setting. Investigators analyzed residents by age, sex, type of wound, presence of infection, and whether the resident was PA or LTC. Authors designated PIs as facility acquired or present on admission. RESULTS: During the study period, 190 wound care consultations were requested; 74.7% of consults were for those in PA care. The average patient age was 76.3 years, and there were 1.7 wounds per resident receiving consultation. Of studied wounds, 53.2% were PIs, 15.8% surgical, 6.8% arterial, 6.3% soft tissue injury, 5.8% venous, 2.6% malignant wounds, and 2.1% diabetic ulcers; however, 11.6% of residents receiving consults had more than one wound type. In this sample, 13.2% of residents had infected wounds, and 76.2% of PIs were present on admission. CONCLUSIONS: The wide variety of wounds in this sample reflects the medical complexity of this population. The transformation of LTC into a PA environment has altered the epidemiology of chronic wounds and increased demand for wound care expertise. These results challenge traditional perceptions of wound care centered on PIs. Given its importance, a wound care skill set should be required of all PA/LTC providers.

Enquête sur une éclosion importante de SRAS-CoV-2 dans un établissement de soins de longue durée au début de la pandémie.

CONTEXTE: Le déploiement de mesures de gestion des éclosions de SRAS-CoV-2 dans les établissements de soins de longue durée en Ontario a permis d'en réduire la fréquence et la gravité. Nous décrivons ici les données épidémiologiques et de laboratoire d'une de ces premières éclosions en Ontario afin de déterminer les facteurs associés à son importance et les impacts des interventions progressives de lutte contre les infections appliquées pendant la durée de l'éclosion. MÉTHODES: Nous avons obtenu du bureau de santé la liste des cas et les données de l'éclosion afin de décrire les cas chez les résidents et le personnel, leur gravité et leur distribution dans le temps et à l'intérieur de l'établissement touché. Quand elles étaient disponibles, nous avons obtenu des données concernant les échantillons soumis au laboratoire de Santé publique Ontario et effectué un séquençage complet et une analyse phylogénétique des échantillons viraux de l'éclosion. RÉSULTATS: Sur les 65 résidents de l'établissement de soins de longue durée, 61 (94 %) ont contracté le SRAS-CoV-2, le taux de létalité étant de 45 % (28/61). Parmi les 67 employés initiaux, 34 (51 %) ont contracté le virus, et aucun n'est décédé. Lorsque l'éclosion a été déclarée, 12 employés, 2 visiteurs et 9 résidents présentaient des symptômes. Parmi les résidents, les cas se trouvaient dans 3 des 4 secteurs de l'établissement. L'analyse phylogénétique a montré une forte similitude des séquences; une seule autre souche de SRAS-CoV-2 génétiquement distincte a été identifiée chez un employé à la troisième semaine de l'éclosion. Après le déploiement de toutes les mesures de gestion de l'éclosion, aucun cas n'a été identifié parmi les 26 nouveaux employés appelés en renfort. INTERPRÉTATION: La propagation rapide et non détectée du virus dans un établissement de soins de longue durée a donné lieu à des taux élevés d'infection chez les résidents et le personnel. L'application progressive de mesures de gestion après le pic de l'éclosion a permis d'éviter la contamination du personnel appelé en renfort et fait désormais partie des politiques à long terme de prévention des éclosions en Ontario.

Epidemiology of patient safety incidents in a long-term rehabilitative hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa (April 2011 to March 2016).

BACKGROUND: Patient safety is a key priority of the National Department of Health. Despite the publication of legislation and other measures to address patient safety incidents (PSIs) there are a paucity of studies relating to patient safety at the different levels of hospitals. OBJECTIVES: To determine the epidemiology (incidence, nature and root causes) of PSIs at a long-term rehabilitative hospital between April 2011 and March 2016. METHOD: Data were collected through a review and analysis of routinely collected hospital information on patient records and from the PSI register, as well as minutes of adverse health events meetings, quality assurance reports and patient complaints register. RESULTS: A total or 4.12 PSIs per 10 000 inpatient days were reported. Approximately 52% of the adverse health events occurred in females with most of the adverse health events occurring in the 50-59 years category: 96% being reported during the day and 33% within the shift change. Pressure ulcers, falls, injury, hospital acquired infections and medication error were the most commonly reported PSIs. Patient factors were listed as the most common root cause for the PSIs. CONCLUSION: The study shows a low reporting rate of PSIs whilst showing a diverse pattern of PSIs over a period of 5 years. There is a need for active change management in order to establish a blame-free culture and learning environment to improve reporting of PSI. A comprehensive quality improvement intervention addressing patients, their families and staff is essential to minimise PSI and its consequences.

Estimated Cardiorespiratory Hospitalizations Attributable to Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Among Long-term Care Facility Residents.

Importance: Older adults residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are at a high risk of being infected with respiratory viruses, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Although these infections commonly have many cardiorespiratory sequelae, the national burden of influenza- and RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory events remains unknown for the multimorbid and vulnerable LTCF population. Objective: To estimate the incidence of cardiorespiratory hospitalizations that were attributable to influenza and RSV among LTCF residents and to quantify the economic burden of these hospitalizations on the US health care system by estimating their associated cost and length of stay. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used national Medicare Provider Analysis and Review inpatient claims and Minimum Data Set clinical assessments for 6 respiratory seasons (2011-2017). Long-stay residents of LTCFs were identified as those living in the facility for at least 100 days (index date), aged 65 years or older, and with 6 months of continuous enrollment in Medicare Part A were included. Follow-up occurred from the resident's index date until the first hospitalization, discharge from the LTCF, disenrollment from Medicare, death, or the end of the study. Residents could re-enter the sample; thus, long-stay episodes of care were identified. Data analysis was performed between January 1 and September 30, 2020. Exposures: Seasonal circulating pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1), human influenza A(H3N2), influenza B, and RSV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiorespiratory hospitalizations (eg, asthma exacerbation, heart failure) were identified using primary diagnosis codes. Influenza- and RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory events were estimated using a negative binomial regression model adjusted for weekly circulating influenza and RSV testing data. Length of stay and costs of influenza- and RSV-attributable events were then estimated. Results: The study population comprised 2 909 106 LTCF residents with 3 138 962 long-stay episodes and 5 079 872 person-years of follow-up. Overall, 10 939 (95% CI, 9413-12 464) influenza- and RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory events occurred, with an incidence of 215 (95% CI, 185-245) events per 100 000 person-years. The cost of influenza- and RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory events was $91 055 393 (95% CI, $77 885 316-$104 225 470), and the length of stay was 56 858 (95% CI, 48 757-64 968) days. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that many cardiorespiratory hospitalizations among LTCF residents in the US were attributable to seasonal influenza and RSV. To minimize the burden these events place on the health care system and residents of LTCFs and to prevent virus transmission, additional preventive measures should be implemented.

Improvement in the long-term care burden after surgical treatment of patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus: a supplementary study.

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a surgically treatable syndrome commonly observed in older adults. However, it is unclear whether clinical improvements after surgery can effectively reduce the long-term care burden (LTCB). In this study, we determined whether shunt surgery was effective in decreasing LTCB. We also investigated the degree of variability in patients and hospitals, using data from the iNPH multicenter study. This study involved 69 participants who underwent lumboperitoneal shunt surgery with follow-up for 12 months. A generalized linear mixed model was applied to analyze the fixed and random effects simultaneously. Regarding LTCB, the disability grades improved significantly. Although the dementia grades also improved, it was not statistically significant. The differences in the LTCB grades in most patients were within the range of the 95% confidence intervals, while in the case of hospitals, some were often out of the range. Further studies are needed to improve dementia in patients with iNPH. The incorporation of random variables, such as hospitals, is important for the analysis of data from multicenter studies.

Impact of COVID-19 on older adults and role of long-term care facilities during early stages of epidemic in Italy.

Older adults are the main victims of the novel COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and elderly in Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) are severely hit in terms of mortality. This paper presents a quantitative study of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy during first stages of the epidemic, focusing on the effects on mortality increase among older adults over 80 and its correlation with LTCFs. The study of growth patterns shows a power-law scaling regime for the first stage of the pandemic with an uneven behaviour among different regions as well as for the overall mortality increase according to the different impact of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 incidence rate does not fully explain the differences of mortality impact in older adults among different regions. We define a quantitative correlation between mortality in older adults and the number of people in LTCFs confirming the tremendous impact of COVID-19 on LTCFs. In addition a correlation between LTCFs and undiagnosed cases as well as effects of health system dysfunction is also observed. Our results confirm that LTCFs did not play a protective role on older adults during the pandemic, but the higher the number of elderly people living in LTCFs the greater the increase of both general and COVID-19 related mortality. We also observed that the handling of the crises in LTCFs hampered an efficient tracing of COVID-19 spread and promoted the increase of deaths not directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

Association of Social Isolation of Long-term Care Facilities in the United States With 30-Day Mortality.

Importance: Long-term care (LTC) residents may be susceptible to social isolation if living in facilities located in neighborhoods lacking social connection. Objective: To characterize the social isolation of residents living in LTC facilities in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included 730 524 LTC residents from 14 224 LTC facilities in 8652 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in the US in 2011. A nationwide LTC database with ZCTA data was linked to population-level geographic data from the US Census Bureau. Statistical analysis was performed from January 2019 to December 2020. Exposures: The primary variable of interest was the social isolation of LTC neighborhoods defined as the percentage of households in the ZCTA with individuals aged 65 years or older who lived alone and categorized into quartiles of social isolation. Main Outcomes and Measures: Maps were generated to illustrate geographic variation of LTC facilities at the ZCTA level by the quartile of socially isolated neighborhoods. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the adjusted likelihood that LTC facilities were located in areas of highest social isolation. We also used multilevel logistic regression models to assess the association between the social isolation of neighborhoods of LTC facilities and 30-day all-cause mortality after LTC admission. Subgroup analyses were conducted by race and ethnicity. Results: Among 33 120 ZCTAs in the US, 8652 (26.1%) had at least 1 LTC facility. Among the 730 524 LTC residents included in the study's 14 224 LTC facilities, 458 136 (62.71%) were female, 610 802 (83.61%) were non-Hispanic White, and 419 654 (57.45%) were aged 80 years or older. Location of LTC facilities was associated with increasing levels of social isolation (quartile 1 = 9.72% [n = 840]; quartile 2 = 18.60% [n = 1607]; quartile 3 = 32.23% [n = 2784]; quartile 4 = 39.45% [n = 3408]; P < .001). In multivariate models, LTC facilities were 8 times more likely to be located in ZCTAs with the highest percentages of older adults residing in single-occupancy households (odds ratio [OR], 8.46; 95% CI, 7.44-9.65; P < .001), compared with ZCTAs with the lowest percentages. This association held across ZCTAs with a majority population of African American and Hispanic individuals, although it was strongest in ZCTAs with a majority population of White individuals. LTC residents entering facilities in neighborhoods with the highest levels of social isolation among older adults had a 17% higher risk of 30-day mortality (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.10-1.25; P < .001) compared with those in neighborhoods with the lowest levels of social isolation among older adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that LTC facilities were often located in socially isolated neighborhoods, suggesting the need for special attention and strategies to keep LTC residents connected to their family and friends for optimal health.